India sets foodgrain target below last year’s record output

New Delhi: India has set a foodgrain production target of 373.93 million tonnes for the 2026-27 crop year, slightly below the record output for 2025-26, as the government factors in weather risks such as El Nino and patchy rainfall.

The target, announced by agriculture and farmers’ welfare minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, is below the actual production of 376.56 million tonnes in 2025-26. The lower target is largely driven by subdued expectations for rice and maize production.

The government has set a rabi season target of 177.72 million tonnes against 171.14 million tonne estimated for 2025-26. Chouhan said crop plans have been drawn up keeping in view the water status of reservoirs, groundwater levels, and soil moisture.

Concerns over monsoon impact

The lower full-year target shows concerns over the impact of uneven monsoon rainfall, and drought-like conditions in some states on the kharif crop.

Farmers had sown 110.39 million hectares of kharif crop as of 18 September, around 1.5 million hectares lower than last year, according to agriculture ministry data. The headline figure obscures declines in key crops such as rice, maize, sugarcane and cotton, which are crucial to India’s food and fibre supplies.

Rice acreage fell 3.7% year-on-year to 42.9 million hectares. Pulses offered some support, with acreage rising 1.4% to 11.9 million hectares, led by gains in Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Telangana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh. Apart from this, maize, soybean and cotton areas have also registered a slight decline.

Chouhan said the increase in acreage under pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals such as urad, bajra, jowar, sesame, sunflower and tur was encouraging.

Preliminary reports indicate crop damage across about 611,000 hectares in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat due to heavy rains, floods or droughts, Chouhan said. A detailed scientific assessment is underway.

Deficient rainfall

The southwest monsoon season has so far delivered cumulative rainfall of 758.5 mm from 1 June to 29 September, 12% below the normal of 865 mm, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data. A deficiency of more than 19% is not considered a severe drought crisis, he added.

Despite the weather risks, foodgrain inventories remain well above prescribed buffer norms, providing room to manage food security requirements. As of 1 September 2026, rice stocks in the central pool stood at 39.05 million tonnes, nearly three times the prescribed buffer norm of 13.5 million tonnes. Wheat stocks were 48 million tonnes, well above the buffer requirement of 27.6 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, the government plans to launch a nationwide “Save the Farm” campaign from 22 October to 30 November, with agricultural scientists, Krishi Vigyan Kendras, state agriculture officials and other field teams advising farmers.