Tensions between India and Pakistan have been high ever since last week’s deadly Pahalgam terror attack on tourists. While India has been putting pressure on Pakistan diplomatically, Islamabad fears that a military action by New Delhi is ‘imminent’.
So the focus is now turning to whether military conflict is a likelihood between the nuclear-armed neighbors, who have fought several wars through their 77 years of existence next to each other.
A group of terrorists killed 26 people in the resort town of Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, one of the bloodiest attacks in the region in years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave the armed forces full operational freedom to choose the mode, targets, and timing of the country’s response to the attack.
Pakistan has denied any role in the attack but fears that an Indian military action could be on the horizon, with several of its ministers claiming to have Intelligence regarding the same.
In this backdrop, here is a look at how India’s military and nuclear might stack up against that of Pakistan.
India’s military might against Pakistan
India has a much bigger military should conflict escalate, with its armed forces having 1,475,000 personnel. The number is more than two times when compared to Pakistan, according to data compiled by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. India’s military budget is also more than eight times that of its western neighbour, a staggering $86 billion last year. That places it among the top five spenders globally.
Apart from the numbers game, the only thing limiting New Delhi’s options is Kashmir’s rugged geography.
Another factor is that both countries have to look at other borders as well. While India already deploys a large portion of its armed forces to defend the border with China, Pakistan has been more focused on its border with Afghanistan due to rampant militancy.
According to Observer Research Foundation (ORF) Vice President Harish Pant, having to hold off both China and Pakistan is another disadvantage for India.
“India’s military is larger, but it has the strategic challenges of two borders to defend,” he was quoted by Bloomberg as saying..
India and Pakistan: The Nuclear arsenal
Both India and Pakistan each have about 170 nuclear warheads, according to an assessment from the Arms Control Association. Both are also in a race to refine delivery systems for warheads that include missiles for longer-range strikes deep inside enemy territory.
India maintains a policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons and has no declared capability of using tactical nuclear weapons, which are low-yield and for use on the battlefield. Pakistan, however, has developed a tactical nuclear weapon — the Nasr (Hatf-9) ballistic missile — with a range of about 70 kilometers (43 miles). Islamabad does not have a ‘no first use’ policy and could pull the trigger in desperation.
India has the advantage in terms of range. Its land-based, road-mobile Agni-V missile has an estimated reach of between 5,000 kilometers and 8,000 kilometers. Pakistan’s Shaheen 3 missile, which is in development, has a potential range of about 2,750 kilometers, or enough to impact all of India, depending on where it’s launched in Pakistan.
The countries are two of the biggest buyers of weapons from overseas, sourcing much of their equipment from Russia and China.
In recent years, India has turned to weapons makers in the US, France and other places, becoming the world’s largest importer of arms, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. India’s reliance on Russia has decreased from 76 percent of its arms imports in 2009-2013 to 36 percent in 2019-2023. New Delhi is also working to modernize its systems with weapons from top defense firms in the US and Europe.
Pakistan has been trying to keep pace and is buying the bulk of its arms from China. Imports from China made up 82 percent of Pakistan’s stock from 2019-2023, compared to 51 percent from 2009-2012, SIPRI data showed.