NASA’s Van Allen Probe A, a 1,323-pound spacecraft launched in 2012, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere on March 10, 2026, around 7:45 p.m. EDT, according to the US Space Force. The probe, part of a twin mission with Van Allen Probe B, studied Earth’s radiation belts for nearly seven years, providing vital data on space weather, solar storms, and cosmic radiation.
Will it crash or burn up?
Most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up in the atmosphere. However, some components may survive re-entry and reach the Earth’s surface. NASA estimates the risk to people is extremely low — about 1 in 4,200.
Why earlier than expected?
NASA’s Van Allen Probe A, launched on August 30, 2012, alongside its twin Van Allen Probe B, studied Earth’s radiation belts for nearly seven years. Originally designed for a two-year mission, the probes gathered critical data on the Van Allen belts, which protect Earth from harmful cosmic radiation, solar storms, and the solar wind. The mission ended in 2019 after the spacecraft ran out of fuel and could no longer orient toward the Sun.
Originally, scientists predicted Van Allen Probe A would re-enter in 2034. However, a stronger-than-expected solar cycle, peaking in 2024, increased atmospheric drag on the spacecraft, bringing its re-entry forward by nearly eight years.
Can you watch the re-entry?
NASA and the US Space Force will monitor the satellite’s descent in real-time, but it is not visible to the naked eye across the U.S. Tracking tools may provide updates online, though most of the debris will burn up before reaching the ground.
Mission legacy
The Van Allen Probes revolutionized our understanding of the radiation belts, discovering a temporary third belt during intense solar activity. Data from the mission continues to help forecast space weather events that can affect satellites, astronauts, and even critical systems on Earth such as navigation, communications, and power grids.
Van Allen Probe B, the twin of the re-entering spacecraft, is not expected to re-enter before 2030, continuing to provide important scientific data.